Thursday, 21st February 2008

Howzit

As is my norm, I spent some time last evening surfing the internet for stories of some interest.

YouTube is always a good place to start, and I found this 25 minute video on a visit to Zimbabwe in October - just 4 month's ago. And we all know that the situation has not improved. Far from it...

I was a little taken aback at how the Zimbabwean Ambassador to South Africa decided to answer a straight question with a straight lie, and again decided that the right answer was to give the interviewer his political resume.

Just how these pro-Mugabe big wigs actually believe their answers will suffice, I have no idea.

Not big wigs... half-wits!

-o00o-

At the risk of repeating myself - if the Mugabe regime is prepared to confess to the inflations rate galloping away at 100580.2%, what would you suppose the actual inflation rate is?

"Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate has soared to over 100,000 percent, weeks ahead of elections in the country, according to official figures obtained by AFP on Wednesday.

"The year-on-year inflation rate for the month of January 2008, as measured by the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 100,580.2 percent, gaining 34,367.9 percentage points on the December rate of 66,212.3 percent," the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said in a statement.

"This means that prices as measured by the all items CPI increased by an average of 100,580.2 percent between January 2007 and January 2008."

Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages reached 105,428.0 percent while non-food inflation was 97,885.7 percent," said the statement."

Just how people in Zimbabwe are expected to survive and make a living in a harsh economic climate brought on by Mugabe's misrule, I will never know.

About a year ago I highlighted a story about one loaf of bread. A shopper found the bread and rushed home to get the required money. By the time that they had returned, the money they had collected was not enough as the price had risen in their absence.

Then there is the story about prices rising between the time the goods are taken from the shelf and the time the shopper arrives at the check out till.

How does one survive in this economic climate?

"Rangarirai Mberi, news editor of the Financial Gazette business weekly, said the state of the economy would feature prominently in next month's presidential and parliamentary elections.

"Numbers no longer shock people," he told AFP. "Zimbabweans have learnt on how to live in a hyper inflationary environment, but the question is how long can this continue?

"What is clear is that the state of the economy would feature prominently (in polls set for March 29)."

-o00o-

I read stories like this with a touch of disbelieving. And then I got to giving it some serious thought.

"President Robert Mugabe is believed to have hatched an escape route in the event of a defeat at next month's presidential polls. This is despite assurances from his opponents that he would be granted immunity from prosecution.

The ailing 84-year-old has been sounding out some of his African neighbours and his dwindling number of friends abroad about providing him with a safe haven.

Fearing that his opponents might try to jail him before he had a chance to slip into exile, Mugabe reluctantly agreed that overtures should be made to opposition rivals.

He is said to have asked South Africa President Thabo Mbeki to arrange a deal about his future at a four-hour meeting in Harare two months ago."

I got to thinking about which country may give him space to live out the rest of his life in exile...

South Africa? No - too many Zimbabweans there...

Botswana? No - very quiet politically, but paying the price for having a common border with Zimbabwe.

Mozambique? No - given the close relationship between Nelson Mandela and Gracia Machel, I just wouldn't even think about it.

Zambia? No - Mwanawasa didn't take kindly to Mugabe's outburst a few months ago and I doubt that Zambia would offer safety there.

DRC? - No. The Zimbabwean army got involved in the war there and zigged when they should have zagged. And the country is almost as badly ruined as Zimbabwe. No need to add to their misery.

Zvimba? - Not a country? Mmmm. Maybe he'll declare it a 'Mugabe homeland'...

Quite frankly - I do not care what happens to Mugabe. He hasn't cared for his people so why should I, as a Zimbabwean, worry about him?

But I do wonder what is to become of his loyalists in government. Mutasa? Mnangagwa? Matonga? What about the RBZ chief, Gideon Gono?

What about members of the armed forces who we know have history... Perence Shiri, for example - officer commanding the Fifth Brigade during the Gukurahundi...

Haile Miriam Mengistu sought exile in Zimbabwe. What will become of him?

Not that I really care what happens to any of these people - although it would be nice to see justice for the people of Zimbabwe.

"One of Mugabe's main challengers, Simba Makoni, stated this week that if he won the crucial vote "space would be made for President Mugabe to live out his days without fear of prosecution".

Mbeki, who is believed to be backing Makoni's candidature through his Third Force project, has communicated to Makoni the need to ensure a dignified departure for Mugabe, though undeserved, in the belief that this would be in the interest of Zimbabwe and SADC.

The secret deal is believed to have been put to Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), to give Mugabe immunity from prosecution and allow him to go into exile abroad.

The deal also guarantees that Mugabe's wife, Grace, and his three children can leave, but the Tsvangirai has insisted that if he wins he will ensure that Mugabe does not take any looted money and treasures with him."

What is it about Mbeki that he feels the need to involve himself in Zimbabwean matters? Why? Hasn't he got his own government to mess up?

"Security sources said Mugabe had the crew of his presidential helicopter on 24-hour standby and the aircraft is parked on the lawn of State House should a swift getaway be needed. The question remains where Mugabe will choose for his exile, although in fiery speeches recently he has maintained "here I was born, here I will die."

So perhaps his intention is to live out his days in... Malawi?

(It has been suggested to me that perhaps Mugabe can share a room in a retirement home in Cuba with Fidel Castro?)

-o00o-

Why am I not surprised at this? This has been well executed and leaves Arthur Mutambara out in the cold. It will teach him to jump at opportunities before the details are worked out.

This move is shrewd, insofar as it has sidelined and now crippled Mutambara. It is too late to join the Presidential race himself - so all he has left is the parliamentary ballot.

"Presidential candidate Simba Makoni this week ditched opposition leader Arthur Mutambara, hardly a week after his nomination papers were duly accepted by the Nomination Court.

Makoni rejected reports he had entered an electoral pact with Mutambara and said he was contesting the election as an independent candidate and had no ties whatsoever to any of the MDC formations.

Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, the deputy secretary general in Mutambara's MDC had disclosed earlier that Mutambara would become deputy to Makoni in the event that the latter wins the forthcoming presidential election and forms a government of national unity."

So. Was this another well-calculated move by the Mugabe government to put an acceptable face at the head of Zimbabwean politics? At the same time sidelining a potential rival?op

Or is this Makoni staking his claim as an independent?

Perhaps we will never know... But much will be revealed once the ballot date has passed.

"Mutambara, who withdrew from the presidential race saying he was contesting the Zengeza West parliamentary election, told a press briefing minutes before Makoni lodged his nomination papers that the ex-Finance minister was a "unifier" and that he was rallying behind him.

In Zengeza West, Mutambara will stand against former trade unionist Collin Gwiyo, representing the mainstream MDC and former war veterans' leader, Patrick Nyaruwata, of ZANU PF."

Once again, I highlight the lack of any reaction by Mugabe to Makoni's entrance into the race for the top job...

-o00o-

Mugabe turns 84 today. I will resist the urge to wish him a happy day.

But for 84 he really is quite fit - isn't he?

"Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe turns 84 on Thursday, defiant as ever but facing an unprecedented challenge in an election due next month.

Mugabe, Zimbabwe's sole ruler since independence in 1980, won a controversial endorsement from his ruling ZANU-PF party to stand for re-election, but could face stiff resistance from a former ally who blames him for an economic meltdown.

Former Finance Minister Simba Makoni has vowed to grab the presidency from Mugabe in the March 29 vote, promising to help Zimbabweans plagued by the world's highest inflation rate and severe food and fuel shortages.

Mugabe says he is "raring to go" against his opponents, including Makoni, who has been branded a sellout by state media.

Mugabe will celebrate his birthday at a huge rally in the southern border town of Beitbridge on Saturday where he is expected to set the tone of his re-election campaign."

Mugabe's birthday is always paid for by the very people he is supposed to lead, and very few, if any, are ever asked to attend the party. I will never understood just why a broke government, a broke political party deem it necessary to 'celebrate' Mugabe's birthday using other people's money - or why his birthday should be cause for some celebration.

Mugabe very seldom even bothers to thank the people for paying for the thrash, but lives it up to the max and turns on the rhetoric. This year is no different - Mugabe is going to double up and launch his Presidential campaign on Saturday in Beitbridge.

"On Thursday, Mugabe is likely to mark his birthday with a traditional private family dinner and he is expected to meet with his staff.

But political analysts say the celebrations have been overshadowed by Makoni's entry into the race in which Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the main faction of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), is also participating.

"Mugabe will try obviously to put up a brave face in public, but in private I think his approach would be to treat both Makoni and Tsvangirai as serious challengers," said Eldred Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe."

Mugabe needs to be very careful as in the past he has been able to cook the books and bring all manner of repression to bear - but this time round I believe that the cards are not stacked so readily in his favour.

The people have had enough. Enough of Mugabe. Enough of his duplicity. Enough of his party's misrule... The time has come for change.

"The MDC accuses Mugabe of hanging on to power through vote-rigging and repressive measures. It says Zimbabwe needs radical reform to ease a crisis that has left the country with the world's highest inflation rate of over 66,000 percent."

See the first article above for an update...

"Mugabe says the economy is being sabotaged by Western opponents led by former colonial power Britain who want to oust him for seizing white-owned farms for landless blacks, a move critics say has ruined the key agriculture sector.

Analysts say Mugabe, whose government has effectively been under Western economic sanctions since ZANU PF's controversial election victory in 2000, is likely to deploy his political shock troops - independence war veterans with a history of intimidating rivals - into the election fray to win the poll."

-o00o-

And whilst Bob and his shamwaris fill their faces with food and drink paid for by other people, the Zimbabwean people continue to struggle through each day, unsure how they will feed themselves, let alone how they can afford the shelter that they have.

Repeated power cuts preclude most people from either being able to keep anything in the freezer (should they have that luxury), and cooking on an open fire has become the norm.

Running water is very seldom available, whilst unemployment is running at over 80%. Fuel is in very short supply (the little that is available has been diverted for use by ZANU PF in the run up to the elections) and foodstuffs are at dangerously low levels.

Yet Mugabe - instead of doing the right thing (like possibly donating the food to the impoverished people) - is intent on living it up in style. I wonder if it is because he knows that the gravy train ride is just about over...

No. It is because he cares not for anyone but himself.

"The supermarket shelves are empty, inflation has topped 67,000 per cent and power cuts are a daily event - but Zimbabwe is about to have a party.

Robert Mugabe turns 84 tomorrow and no amount of suffering is going to stop him spending a small fortune in precious currency on a lavish celebration.

Marking the President's birth has become synonymous with extravagance in the impoverished southern African country – and the ruling party's aggressive "21st February Movement" makes sure everyone joins in.

The main event will be held in the border town of Beitbridge, while similar festivities will be held across the country. The main event on the border with South Africa is expected to attract thousands of ruling party supporters and Mugabe cronies. While the party is going on, the nightly exodus of Zimbabweans across the Limpopo River into South Africa will undoubtedly continue."

Makes you sick, doesn't it?

"I wish this was not his birth-day but his death-day," said a former teacher. "The biggest contribution that this guy could have made to this country is to have died a long time ago."

How many people. now scattered around the world echo that sentiment?

-o00o-

I do not advocate violence or weapons, neither do I sanction the violence practised on the people by Mugabe's armed forces.

The operative word being 'armed'.

So they ban weapons. But the police, the army, the war veterans and the youth militia will be armed. And then, having beaten the opposition to a pulp, they will claim that the activists were armed and they began the violence.

You can't have your cake and eat it - although I guarantee that they are eating cake today in Beitbridge!

"Police in Zimbabwe have banned the carrying or possession of dangerous weapons in public for the next two months as part of measures to ensure violence-free elections, the state-controlled Herald reported today.

The ban would apply to all police districts in Harare and Masvingo and would remain in force until at least three weeks after the March 29 elections.

The prohibition, effective from Thursday, is in accordance with Section 14 of the Public Order and Security Act Chapter 11:07, which empowers regulating authorities to ban certain weapons for security reasons, the newspaper reported.

Some of the weapons prohibited include machetes, spears, daggers, axes, knobkerries, swords, knives, catapults and any other traditional weapons."

I would put money on the ruling party members being armed to the teeth. This is another way of Mugabe ensuring that the elections are handled to his advantage.

There is not a lot that anyone can do when, unarmed, you are held at gunpoint by any number of Mugabe's police - or another armed wing affiliated to ZANU PF.

"Police are empowered to search people and vehicles, confiscate and charge anyone found in possession of the specified dangerous weapons."

Officer Commanding Harare District Chief Superintendent Isaac Tayengwa announced the ban yesterday at a briefing attended by the five regulating authorities for Harare Suburban, Harare Central, Harare South, Mbare and Chitungwiza while Masvingo police announced their ban on Monday.

From past experience, he said, some unruly and misguided elements take advantage of election time to commit acts of violence, intimidation, harassment, vandalism and interfere with law-abiding citizens' lives."

Oh - put a sock in it! This is just a preamble to Mugabe's all out effort to steal the election.

"Although Chief Supt Tayengwa said walking sticks were excluded from the list of dangerous weapons, he warned the public to desist from using them in acts of violence."

-o00o-

And finally - and I could go on forever as there is a lot of news out there on Zimbabwe - I see that Nelson Mandela has spoken out against African tyrants. I would assume from that then, that Mugabe does not impress him at all...

"Sharp differences are emerging among South Africa's leaders over the deepening Zimbabwe crisis after Nelson Mandela made a thinly-disguised attack on President Robert Mugabe as a "tyrant".

This was in contrast to the softly-softly approach of President Thabo Mbeki, who has kept up a show of African solidarity with Mugabe, insisting his failed mediation has worked. On Monday, South Africa's Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, speaking at a joint press conference with her visiting New Zealand counterpart, Winston Peters, told critics of Mbeki's diplomatic policy that nothing would be achieved in Zimbabwe by the noise of empty drums.

At the weekend, Mandela denounced Mugabe and other power-grabbing African leaders. He said ordinary people should depose tyrants who enriched themselves at the expense of their countrymen by "picking up rifles and fighting for liberation"."

Mandela made little pretence of what he was talking about, although he did stop short of naming Mugabe. Mugabe, of course, will sidestep this criticism with some fiery dismissal like, "He is old - what does he know?" or similar...

South Africa have played the Zimbabwean crisis with what Thabo Mbeki had dubbed 'quiet diplomacy', but this has evidently not worked. And the mediated talks for which Mbeki was mandated to broker by SADC were a dismal failure. So either Mbeki is not particularly worried about what is happening in the country immediately to his North - or has been held at bay by a misplaced admiration of Mugabe.

Either way, the result is the same.

The crisis in Zimbabwe has not gone away... and neither has Robert Mugabe.

"Mbeki's lieutenants were prickly when asked about Mandela's comments.

"That is Mr Mandela's view. Mr Mbeki has explained his position in the State of the Nation address," Mbeki's spokesman said. "The situation in Zimbabwe is very serious. There are more serious things to do than to look for differences between public officials."

-o00o-

Take care.

'debvhu