Monday, 5th May 2008

Howzit

"Democracy means not "I am as good as you are" but "You are as good as I am."

Theodore Parker
US Unitarian theologian and social reformer
(1810-1860)

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Foreign currency mid-rates updated...

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ZNU 119 released. In this programme I look at the problems facing the MDC with the surprise release of the long-awaited Presidential election results, now to be followed by an election second round runoff.

The programme can be heard using the player below, the multiplayers in the right hand sidebar, on Odeo, here or even downloaded or played here.

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Just what is it about Robert Mugabe that African leaders do not criticise his rule, and bend over backwards to assist him?

"South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki’s senior Cabinet ministers and government officials worked to prevent the Chinese arms ship from offloading its cargo, despite his insistence that the mortar bombs, rocket-propelled grenades and assault rifles be allowed to reach Robert Mugabe’s military.

South Africa’s Finance Minister Trevor Manuel played an active voice in preventing the Chinese arms carrier from docking in South Africa.

Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, South African Revenue Service Commissioner Pravin Gordhan, director general in the Department of Transport Mpumi Mpofu and officials of the South African Police Service were among the key players in a plan to delay the docking of the ship. They hoped to seize the six containers of weapons on the pretext of customs and shipping technicalities.

The goal appears to have been to ensure the cargo could not be transported to Zimbabwe.

This strategy flew directly in the face of instructions from Mbeki to the ministry of defence and the national conventional arms control committee that the arms transfer should be permitted, according to government officials who were close to the process.

"He gave a direct order that they have to let it through,” one close observer told a South African paper."

I do note that the ship has docked in Luanda and is being offloaded - although no one can confirm if the weapons are included in those containers taken off the ship.

I believe that what will happen, is that the weapons will be offloaded and quietly transported to Zimbabwe and delivered to Mugabe. This will happen regardless of any court orders or the like - Mugabe has this habit of having things 'happen' for him.

I was staggered to read, about a week ago, that senior Malawian officials had travelled to Angola with a view to have the weapons released as a 'donation' from the Malawians to Mugabe.

Have they all taken leave of their senses? Do that truly have no idea what Mugabe would do in the event that these weapons are delivered to him? Have they forgotten what happen in Rwanda in 1994?

"Mbeki’s insistence on letting the weapons through is seen by many who were formerly among his closest allies in government and the ANC as "bizarre" and "embarrassing".

"It was a real revolt," said one. "Every-one is asking what has happened to him. It is very hard to explain."

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Complete and utter stupidity. Mugabe, the unelected President, who leads an illegally re-appointed cabinet, can take his sweet time in announcing a runoff date. He can delay it for up to one year from the date of the release of the first round results.

That means, believe it or not, the last day for the second round runoff, could conceivably be set for 1st May 2009!

"Zimbabwe's electoral commission said Sunday it would soon fix a date for the presidential election second round, as the opposition continued to consider under what conditions, if any, it would take part.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has insisted that according to its own calculations its leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the March 29 election outright.

Official figures however, while putting Tsvangirai in the lead, did not give him an outright win.

But while Tsvangirai has said previously there was "no need for a run-off" he may yet take part in a second round if international observers are present."

We must, at all times, realise that, in the event that Tsvangirai decides not to participate in a runoff, Mugabe would win by default.

My question in all of this, is who runs the country in the interim - and who appoints cabinet?

I do not believe that Mugabe has the right to carry on, and that a caretaker President should be put in place, whilst parliament can be convened, although a cabinet would have to be selected and appointed by a caretaker President.

The fact that Mugabe did not win the election does not give him the power to remain in office. And cabinet is not his to appoint - as his party does not have the popular mandate in parliament.

But I don't see much changing...

"I cannot state exactly when the run-off will be held but I can confirm that the poll will be held on a date to be announced by the commission," ZEC chairman George Chiweshe was quoted as saying.

Zimbabwe has been rocked by post-poll violence since the announcement of parliamentary results saw the ZANU PF lose its majority in parliament for the first time in 28 years."

I do laugh at the assertion that ZANU PF says the election was fraught with fraud. Of course it was! By ZANU PF!

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"Zimbabwean police violently dispersed a group of people aligned to the new head of the Methodist church who were attending a service in Harare on Sunday and arrested a clergyman who was presiding over the service.

About 20 armed riot policemen had descended on the group aligned to the new head of the Harare diocese, Bishop Sebastian Bakare, and ordered them to disperse before arresting Reverend Farai Mutamiri. They bundled him into a police truck and drove him away.

Those who tried to resist the order were beaten up with batons. Police spokesperson Wayne Bvudzijena could not be reached for comment regarding the reason for the arrest of Mutamiri and his whereabouts.

Recently High Court judge Rita Makarau ruled that both church members aligned to axed bishop Nolbert Kunonga and Bakare must share the St Mary's Cathedral church."

Once again, the court orders in Zimbabwe are ignored with absolute impunity.

Just what 'crime' had Mutamiri committed, and why did the police feel the need to raid the service and disperse the congregation?

This is more political muscle flexing. Bishop Kunonga has made no secret of his pro-Mugabe stance. But when orders from the High Court are just sidelined, and not recognised, then we must realise that the church itself is under attack from the Mugabe regime.

And, for someone brought up by Jesuits, Mugabe is showing signs of forgetting his roots and totally focusing entirely on his political agenda.

"Since the wrangle started, armed police have been called to disrupt church services in Harare, arresting at least three priests and a number of parishioners opposed to Kunonga and openly challenged the decision to allow the disgraced bishop to take over against the will of the people.

There was also a heavy deployment of secret security agents to attend the Bakare faction services."

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Cash is a serious problem in Zimbabwe. To the point that many years ago, they introduced bearer cheques. These are just pieces of paper with no security features that are used as normal cash. It should be borne in mind that bearer cheques are not legal tender in Zimbabwe.

"The crisis comes days after the central bank governor announced that consumers and businesses would be able to withdraw significantly more from their accounts on a daily basis.

Sources in Harare and Bulawayo reported unusually long queues at banks leaving some customers without cash when banks closed for the day. In Harare and Bulawayo financial institutions were dispensing relatively smaller denominations of Z$750,000 and Z$10 million and ATMs in both cities were empty by late in the day.

Some banks in Mutare, Manicaland Province, had Z$25 million and Z$50 million dollar notes but limited withdrawals to Z$1 billion, not the Z$5 billion limit which Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono announced on Wednesday."

So even within the bank networks, the restrictions on cash withdrawals do not apply as they just do not have the cheques to satisfy the demand.

"Gono unveiled a number of policy changes in his quarterly policy statement, among them the establishment of a 'twinning' arrangement to bring together willing buyers and sellers of foreign exchange - albeit subject to central bank review.

Some economists attribute such cash shortages to hyperinflation - as prices soar, the requirements for cash expand across the entire economy. Zimbabwe's inflation rate was last officially given as 165,000% for February."

And it is easy to see the reason why the cheques are in short supply - when a single loaf of bread costs ZW$40 million - if, indeed, you can find any bread to purchase.

But the opposite is also true. Not very many people have that sort of money in their accounts, or at their disposal.

And the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is understood to finance many of Mugabe's purchases - even though the government and ZANU PF are broke.

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"Besieged white farmers in Zimbabwe report widely varying responses from police to attacks on their properties by Robert Mugabe's henchmen, indicating patchy support for the President from his security forces.

Police have acted forcefully in recent days to evict supporters of Mugabe's ZANU PF party who occupied white-owned farms in early April near the northern town of Centenary and the southern town of Masvingo.

However, in much of southern Zimbabwe and the country's east, the attacks on properties have increased in the past week.

The main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, is undecided about whether to contest a runoff presidential election after the Government declared late last week that no candidate won a majority in the March elections. Observers speculate that Mugabe has not yet stolen the election because he is not assured of the universal backing of police and military personnel.

Whites retain ownership of just 500 of the 4600 farms that were targeted by Mugabe's former bush guerillas during a bloody takeover in the early 2000s, leading to the collapse of Zimbabwe's agriculture-based economy.

The Commercial Farmers Union says 160 white-owned farms are now under attack by Mugabe supporters, but while police often ignore calls for help from besieged property owners, they are intervening in some cases."

Is it entirely necessary that all white-owned farms are taken away? Is Mugabe intent on removing the white commercial farmer completely?

If so - more fool him! Since the beginning of the land grab in 2000, not only have many people lost their lives in the evictions, but production of foodstuffs and exports have stopped. The farms of the evicted farmers have been taken over by Mugabe bigwigs, and very little farming goes on.

So much for returning the land to the 'landless blacks'.

"Around the country there is a very confusing picture about the security situation," said Farmers Union consultant Mike Clark.

"We are caught in the middle of this huge political argument and nobody knows what really is going on."

Simon, the Australian son of a Zimbabwean farming couple, said his parents had returned to their property north of Harare after Mugabe's henchmen were evicted by police last week.

Simon, who asked that his surname not be published, said police had jailed and beaten many ZANU PF zealots.

"Much to the surprise of everyone, about half of the people who were trying to take the farms over in our area, many of whom were drunk and acting crazy, were taken away by the police. They were locked up and some of them were bashed."

I must ask. Why did it take Mugabe 20 years before he 'addressed' the land issue? Under the agreement signed at Lancaster House, property would change hands on a 'willing buyer willing seller' basis. The British government paid Mugabe money for his to use in the purchase of land. He used the money elsewhere, and now says that compensation must be paid to the farmers by the UK.

Why has Mugabe never been asked to account for the money?

Or does the UK abrogate any responsibility?

"Farmers Union president Trevor Gifford said his property near Chipinge was occupied last month but that he had been allowed back with the assistance of police. He said his workers had been evicted from the property and that some were beaten severely.

"People working here on the farm have had to flee into the bush and they are in hiding," Mr Gifford said.

"Everyone is absolutely petrified. It is a horrible existence. My family has been here since 1894 and it is just barbaric that this is taking place."

Mugabe keeps the invasions current as that way he can use them as attention deflecting stories while he lines up his next victim...

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Mugabe has a simple maxim. If you are not with him, then you are against him. And his various bodies - police, army, war veterans, youth brigades and militai - are prepared to beat anyone that they believe is not of the ZANU PF persuasion. And many of the beatings, practised on the old, infirm and children alike, are conducted mercilessly...

"Mabhawuwa Tinashe was sitting outside a shopping centre early last month when a group of men, some of whom he recognised, forced him to attend a "night vigil".

On instruction, he returned for a second "vigil", but fled his home when ordered to come back a third time.

Tinashe, 19, could take no more.

Whipped all night long at the vigil in a bid, he was told, to teach him how to vote "correctly", Tinashe is just one of thousands of rural dwellers terrorised by Zimbabwe’s feared war veterans and youth militia, following the March 29 elections in which President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU PF were voted out of power."

Since when does any self respecting government, political party or President resort to beating the people? I know we see it all over the world, and that saddens me.

If Mugabe cannot get himself elected legitimately, he will beat his will into the people, until they conform and he wins an election. So much for democracy in Zimbabwe.

Mind you, this is the man who told the world, just a few weeks ago, "We taught Britain democracy through the barrel of a gun!"

With a claim to fame like that, we should not be surprised at the violence - but I am surprised at the virtual silence coming out of the international community. We do hear some weak-kneed calls for a stop to the violence - but have you noticed that none of those calls come from African leaders?

Nothing from Mbeki in South Africa (no surprise there), nothing from Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia...

"Several villages in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland and Manicaland provinces are said to have been virtually sealed off by the war veterans and ZANU PF youth militia in the weeks after the elections, so they could be punished for their "act of betrayal" in voting for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai over Mugabe.

The crackdown is also intended to re-educate villagers so they support Mugabe against Tsvangirai in a runoff for the presidency, expected to be held on May 24.

For Tinashe and his fellow villagers, relief came only after some victims managed to flee to Harare, about 60km away, and alert human rights groups to their plight.

But the "lesson" had already been handed down."

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Take care.

'debvhu