Monday, 28th July 2008

Howzit

Foreign currency mid-rates updated.

-o00o-

Monday is podcast day. ZNU 131 is available to play using either the player below or in the multiplayers in the right hand sidebar.

In this programme I look at the hypocrisy of the current power sharing talks in South Africa. And the obvious failure of the three parties to live up to the agreement which they all signed.

For some reason, Odeo has deemed my latest programme as 'invalid', but the programme is playable from here and can be downloaded here...

As usual, my thanks for your continued support of my broadcasts.

-o00o-

Over the last couple of months, we have heard Mugabe threatening to go to war against the people in the event of an election loss. Well - he lost the majority in parliament, and then went on to bully, beat and kill the opposition supporters until Tsvangirai had no option but to withdraw. And we all said that the Zimbabwe National Army was being primed to fight for Mugabe.

Perhaps we were too hasty to believe that the ZNA is equipped and trained to fight their own people (or anyone else, for that matter...).

"Corporal Peter Choto, who joined the army 10 years ago, painted a vivid picture of a military machine in headlong collapse.

President Robert Mugabe relies on the army to keep him in power and its generals are now believed to be the most powerful men in Zimbabwe. While they have grown rich, hyperinflation now exceeding two million per cent has impoverished their troops.

Cpl Choto - not his real name - earns more than a private soldier. He takes home £13 per month. The World Bank's definition of absolute poverty is a monthly wage of £15.

"At least three quarters of us would not take up arms for Zimbabwe," he said. "We will not go to war for Zimbabwe, I am not going to take a risk with a rifle for Zimbabwe. That time is gone."

Cpl Choto said the only boots the army could afford were made of "Chinese plastic". He added: "Chinese boots only last a few days on patrol before they are in ribbons. I have only one uniform and wear it for the week."

It makes very unhappy reading, and we must remember that this is the opinion of just one man. But why would one man come forward and tell a pack of lies? What is his motivation?

"Three years ago we got porridge, sausage, bacon - sometimes eggs. We always got meat at least once a day," he said. Today, by contrast, soldiers get two plates of maize meal, known as "sadza", a day.

Cpl Choto said: "There are 500 recruits at the cantonment. If the world saw pictures of them, the world would be shocked as they are so thin. At least 100 report sick every day.

"They are passing out next week and they haven't been to the rifle range even once, because that ammo is being reserved for emergencies."

I do wonder about the Chinese shipment of arms that was supposedly delivered. If the ZNA is in such a poor state, the big wigs can hardly expect the men to fight for them, when they hardly have the strength to fight for themselves...

"I will leave the army next year," he said. "Most are leaving, or going AWOL, or dying."

-o00o-

I don't understand how targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his henchmen are effecting anyone except them - and why the South Africans feel that the increased sanctions can affect Mugabe during the talks.

"South Africa's government criticised Sunday the imposition of new sanctions on President Robert Mugabe and his allies, especially with talks ongoing to try to resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe.

"For us, it is difficult to understand the objectives of new sanctions," Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad said.

"The Zimbabweans are meeting, let them sort out what they want for their future. We should not allow outside interference," he told a press conference.

The United States and the European Union broadened sanctions this week on Mugabe and his closest aides, drawing accusations such moves could derail the negotiations under way in Pretoria."

The increased sanctions are not going to affect Mugabe unless his wants to travel somewhere. But he has this 'look East' policy - let him go East. He trashes the West at every opportunity - let him live by his own words.

And that the South African government have rushed to his aid and defence I find reprehensible.

"South African President Thabo Mbeki spoke before Pahad but refused to be drawn on the issue of sanctions, saying only that talks were continuing and that his government wanted a negotiated settlement as soon as possible."

-o00o-

This article on ZimOnline looks at one of the areas of concern that I have,

The MDC holds a one seat majority over ZANU PF in parliament, which means that the party that came third ostensibly has the influential vote in that house. The smalled faction of the MDC, led by rocket scientist Arthur Mutambara has 10 seats - and then, of course, we have the former ZANU PF cabinet minister, Jonathan Moyo.

This means that the two larger parties will be vying for the favour of Mutambara and his followers in an effort to influence decisions in parliament.

"Politics involves a lot of risk and uncertainty. There are times when politicians take issues for granted, only to be rudely awakened by a shocking reality proving their assumptions wrong.

"However, events since the run-off have once again shown that there are no certainties in politics. How is this so?

One point to be remembered is that despite a formal agreement on joining forces in parliament, the MDC factions still operate as different entities as witnessed by the fielding of candidates in the three parliamentary seats contested on June 27 and also the fact that there are times when, for example, Arthur Mutambara's faction may go it alone as it did when meeting South African President Thabo Mbeki early this month.

As such there is no certainty as to the fate of the 10 seats that the Mutambara factions holds. This will be explained shortly.

Then there is the other seat held by Professor Jonathan Moyo. The professor has shown his political acumen and Machiavellian scheming by managing to make sure that the MDC-T does not field a candidate in Tsholotsho before he then turned, with or without justification, and started blaming the MDC-T for tactical bankruptcy in political strategies.

The merits and demerits of this is not the intention of this debate although it is now clear that this seat is floating in the direction of ZANU PF, be it because of issues of "nationalism or patriotism".

It needs no political or rocket scientist to realise that logically this seat should be in the orbit of the MDC-T as a logical consequence of the pre-March 29 agreement that sought unity against ZANU PF.

It can be argued from the above that ZANU PF now has an equal number of seats with MDC-T, that is, if Moyo’s recent public utterances are anything to go by.

Then the dog-fight starts on who will get the backing of Mutambara’s MDC with its 10 seats.

In terms of the alliance of democratic forces, the seats were supposed to go to MDC-T but as mentioned before, politics is very unpredictable. If anything, the seats are up for anyone’s taking.

We cannot take for granted the friction that arose in the run up to the run-off election when it was alleged that MDC-T had tried to lure winning candidates from the Mutambara faction without going through the proper party channels."

From that incident it has not been certain whether the commitment to support MDC-T still stands and it appears that the Mutambara faction has realised that it is the lever that will tilt the decision in the lower house in any direction."

It will be interesting to see how much give and take is offered to the third and smallest party in the talks in South Africa - because, simply put, the party with the alliance of Mutambara's faction will effectively have the majority - but we must also remember that the persons within Mutambara's faction that hold these seats will have their own opinion.

"Talk of the power of a small number over a large number.

There may be some promises being made (dangling the carrots) and the party that is likely to be making most of these is ZANU PF mainly because it is the ruling party and depending on the outcome of the talks it is most likely that it wields a certain leverage that it may use to mop up the floating seats, one of which now appears to be certainly won over."

A statement that I disagree with entirely. ZANU PF is not the ruling party. By virtue of the majority in parliament (is this word meant to be capitalised?), the MDC is the ruling party... In my mind, at least.

"One also has to look at the enthusiasm with which Mutambara and company were eager to enter the talks against the background of the reluctance by Tsvangirai.

I am not supporting or opposing the reluctance, as it is up to MDC-T to see what is good for them.

I am only mentioning it as an important factor that supports the argument that the other faction may be playing its cards in a way that seeks to maximise its chances of acquiring or accessing power."

-o00o-

Is this venture not in direct contravention of the sanctions supposedly in place against Mugabe and his named supporters? And I am absolutely sure that Mujuru's name is on that list!

"A public management company constituted by the United Nations and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and based in Johannesburg has been providing assistance to a mine owned by one of President Robert Mugabe's top lieutenants for the past four years, in an apparent breach of United States legislation aimed at bringing about democratic change in Zimbabwe.

The US government, which had recently threatened to impose stiffer sanctions on Zimbabwe following the disputed run-off presidential election, has been made aware of this operation on several occasions but has so far taken no action.

The African Management Service Company (Amsco), an entity jointly managed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the IFC, the private sector arm of the World Bank, has been providing assistance to River Ranch Diamond Mine which is owned by Solomon Mujuru, the former commander of the Zimbabwean army and husband of vice-president Joyce Mujuru, since November 2004.

Mujuru, a member of the ruling party's politburo, is one of the nearly 130 Zimbabweans on the US's targeted sanctions list. The list also includes more than 30 companies or properties owned by people linked to Mugabe."

What is the purpose of expanding the listing of people and companies sanctioned if the very people that are supposed to enforce the sanctions are supporting those on the list?

Why bother with sanctions? Mugabe seems to travel all over the world - and the only change we have seen lately is that his wife Grace will no longer be permitted to travel with him... Now we discover that the UN is in business with Solomon Mujuru of all people and although they have been made aware of the error of their ways, nothing has changed.

"The sanctions are administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US treasury department. OFAC says the sanctions prohibit people from the US or anyone in the US from engaging in any transaction with any person, entity or organisation undermining democratic institutions and processes in Zimbabwe.

This also precludes anyone on the designated nationals' list or immediate family members of these designated individuals from engaging in these activities.

Prohibited transactions include exports, imports, trade brokering, financing and facilitation, as well as most financial transactions.

The regulations define US as: "Any US citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organised under the laws of the US or any jurisdiction within the US (including foreign branches), or any person in the US."

Typical. Say one thing and do another. It is not good enough to stand up and say something against Mugabe and then institute sanctions if the very body that institutes those very sanctions are dealing in business with those under sanction.

I am not surprised that the targeted sanctions have not worked - especially with the limitations being lifted every few minutes to allow Mugabe to travel hither and thither - and now they break their own instruction!

-o00o-

"The much-heralded talks between Mugabe's men and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) got underway in Pretoria on Thursday, but it became increasingly clear over the weekend that there remains a seemingly unbridgeable divide between Morgan Tsvangirai and the President.

According to my sources in South Africa, a range of issues exists over which the two sides are a million miles from reaching agreement. Specifically, it is the following demands of both that divide them.

Mugabe insists that in any new government he must remain as executive president, though he is prepared to agree to Tsvangirai becoming either vice-president, or Prime Minister under him.

He insists that all sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union be lifted before meaningful agreement can be reached. And he wants an undertaking that the so-called Land Reform Programme, which observers agree began Zimbabwe's economic collapse, be deemed irreversible."

On the face of it, these demands would be reasonable, although I see no reason for Mugabe to remain in office... he was, after all, only 're-elected' after he re-worked the political landscape to suit himself, thereby forcing Tsvangirai to withdraw.

I have no doubt, that, if Tsvangirai had remained in the race he would have won - but what terrible retribution would have taken place as a result?

"Tsvangirai, in contrast, insists that, in a transitional government, Mugabe, although remaining President, must lose all his executive powers. He wants new elections to be scheduled for two years' time, to be supervised by the African Union and SADC.

His representatives at the talks will also tell the ZANU PF delegation that Tsvangirai plans a land audit, which will lead to compensation to be paid to dispossessed white farmers, and for action to be taken against Mugabe's men who grabbed more than one farm.

But the major stumbling block between the two sides comes down to one thing: immunity or otherwise for Mugabe's associates, particuarly those who initiated and organised the murderous violence that has rocked the country since the elections."

ZANU PF would like to protect their own - no matter what the crime. I understand their loyalty to themselves, but do question the alacrity in which they cling to the demand, knowing full well that heads will roll if they cede to the MDC.

Tsvangirai is only asking, initially at any rate, for justice for those killed in the last few months. What of those that were killed during the Gukurahundi? Mugabe pardoned his people not long after the signing of the Peace Accord in 1987 with Joshua Nkomo, but I believe the time has come when those responsible must face their accusers.

"It is these issues, these huge divides, that currently separate the two parties. Many believe that there is no realistic chance of any true agreement being reached. They say that the only result can be either Tsvangirai's ultimate failure to save the country or the complete humiliation of Robert Mugabe."

-o00o-

"A group of so-called war veterans has demanded 30 head of cattle and US$1000 in cash from Joe Erasmus, a white commercial farmer.

The war veterans say the money and beasts are meant to be a gesture of appreciation by Erasmus that they did not invade all his farms at the height of farm occupations in 2000.

The group had earlier given Erasmus, of the Chartsworth commercial farming area near Gutu, two weeks to hand over the cattle, failing which they would take over his remaining commercial farm.

At the time, the war veterans only demanded the cattle."

And we all know how this is going to end. The war veterans demand the cattle and the money - eat the meat and spend the money - and when they're ready, they will move in and run the farmer off his land.

End of story. All the cattle and money has done has bought the farmer a little more time. Nothing else.

"We want Erasmus to pay us because all along he has been utilising our resources", Masvingo war veterans’ chairman Isaiah Muzenda said. "We seized 14 of his 15 farms and left him with one. We feel that he has to pay us for sparing that one."

According to the land policy adopted by the Mugabe government, it is meant to be one man - one farm - why should they then not leave Erasmus with the one farm? I would dearly love to know who got the 14 farms they took away from Erasmus.

The 'landless blacks'? I don't think so! And how many of the recipients of farms from the Mugabe regime are actually working the land? And how many families have more that one farm - in direct contravention of ZANU PF's own policy? (Mugabe's family has at least three farms!) Statrt at the top and work your way down...

"We met as war veterans and agreed that the 15 head of cattle we had demanded initially were not enough", said Muzenda. "We now need 30 head of cattle and US$1 000 because we feel this white-man has to thank us.

If he fails to meet our demands, we are going to invade and take away his remaining farm."

-o00o-

Take care.

'debvhu