Saturday, 31st January 2009

Howzit

Okay - so the MDC has backed Tsvangirai's decision to enter into a power-sharing government. Does this mean that the problems in Zimbabwe will miraculously disappear overnight? Far from it!

Does this mean that the oppression and violence will stop? Will political detainees be released? Will money and employment become available?

No.

Mugabe will continue to rule the roost and Tsvangirai/MDC will be sidelined. I see this power-sharing government being very similar to the ZANU PF/ZAPU 'peace' accord in 1987 which resulted in the virtual demise of ZAPU.

But I do NOT believe that the MDC have sold Zimbabweans down the river...

-o00o-

Wade if Senegal and Mugabe of Zimbabwe are not the closest of friends.

And Mengestu must be a worried man. Whilst Mugabe is in Zimbabwe and carries some power, he is relatively safe.

"African leaders made new calls on Friday for Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe to stand down with Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade saying he had offered him asylum.

"If he leaves power he will not go to Europe," Wade said in a debate on Africa at the World Economic Forum in Davos, "so I told him: 'Come to Senegal'." "My friend Mugabe does not want to make concessions, we are at a dead end, he can no longer govern the country alone," added the Senegal leader, current president of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference."

Of course, Mugabe will never voluntarily leave office (and with it, power) so sadly Wade's words are wasted.

"Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, a longstanding critic of the veteran Zimbabwe president, said: "Its time for Mr Mugabe to be shown the door." On Thursay, Odinga suggested a "golden handshake" for Mugabe if he quits. Mugabe faces mounting pressure over a dramatic economic collapse in Zimbabwe which has been worsened by political turmoil since a bitterly disputed election last year."

"Quit" is not a word in Mugabe's vocabulary.

He has somehow hung on to power, even though his party lost the election, and Mugabe will continue with the arrests, the violence, the intimidation, the long term suffering of the Zimbabwean people.

-o00o-

Morgan Tsvangirai is being hailed a hero in Zimbabwe, and his party members are considered heroes as the country lurches towards a power-sharing government with Mugabe.

Morgan Tsvangirai addresses supporters in
Harare yesterday

Whilst the basics are in place, the MDC has placed much trust in SADC, and among their priorities are:

"I. The parties shall endeavour to cause Parliament to pass the Constitutional Amendment 19 by 5 February 2009.

II. The Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Ministers shall be sworn in by 11 February 2009:

III. The Ministers and Deputy Ministers shall be sworn in on 13 February 2009, which will conclude the process of the formation of the inclusive government.

IV. The Joint-Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC), provided for in the Global Political Agreement, shall be activated immediately. The first meeting of JOMIC shall be convened by the facilitator on 30 January 2009 and shall, among other things, elect the chairpersons;

V. The allocation of ministerial portfolios endorsed by the SADC Extraordinary Summit held on 9 November 2008 shall be reviewed six (6) months after the inauguration of the inclusive government.

VI. The appointments of the Reserve Bank Governor and the Attorney General will be dealt with by the inclusive government after its formation.

VII. The negotiators of the parties shall meet immediately to consider the National Security Bill submitted by the MDC-T as well as the formula for the distribution of governors."

Now you and I may be able to diarise each of these priorities, although we know that Mugabe is a past master at delay and time wasting...

-o00o-

In typical African style (and I don't mean that in any derogatory sense), the powers that be have set up a committee to oversee the establishment of a power-sharing government.

It doesn't say much for the political parties when a committee has to be appointed to oversee what should just happen anyway.

"ZANU PF and the two MDC formations on Friday set up a body which will monitor the parties’ compliance with the Global Political Agreement, signed on 15th September last year.

Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, the deputy secretary general for the MDC-M, told us the committee was inaugurated at a ceremony at the South African High Commission in Harare.

Misihairabwi-Mushonga said the Joint Monitoring Implementation Committee (JOMIC) would deal with issues of compliance and monitoring of the GPA, as well as grievances and concerns relating to the unity deal.

JOMIC has 12 members, four from each of the three parties. It will be co-chaired by all the parties."

No doubt there will be some unhappiness within the committee and I would be willing to bet that the ZANU PF representatives are under instructions to waste as much time as possible and to object to any and everything...

"On the committee will be:

MDC-T: Chairman, Elton Mangoma. Plus; Elias Mudzuri, Tabitha Khumalo and Innocent Chagonda.

MDC-M: Chairman, Welshman Ncube. Plus; Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, Frank Chamunorwa and Edward Mkhosi.

ZANU PF: Chairman, Nicholas Goche. Plus; Emmerson Mnangagwa, Patrick Chinamasa and Oppah Muchinguri.

Speaking at the launch of the committee, Sydney Mufamadi, a member of the South African mediation team that pushed the unity deal forward, said the formation of JOMIC demonstrated the commitment of the parties to ensure that what they agreed to does come to pass.

But observers have expressed much concern at the ‘hard’ men representing ZANU PF on the committee, particularly Emmerson Mnangagwa. The United Nations issued a report in 2001 that showed that Mnangagwa was the architect of commercial activities for ZANU PF, controlling the illegal plunder of the DRC."

And so we head into a new era in Zimbabwean politics...

-o00o-

And whilst the world focuses on the power-sharing deal and the establishment of a representative government, ZANU PF continues to usurp the law and now one of their representatives has called for them to take advantage of the limited time left to take more land...

"Fresh farm invasions have been witnessed in Mashonaland West province as frustrated ZANU PF supporters try to grab pieces of land before the inception of an all inclusive government by ZANU PF and MDC in two weeks time.

The invasions are said to have been instigated by Themba Mliswa, the ZANU PF secretary for Lands in Mashonaland West province at a provincial meeting for A2 farmers in Chegutu on Wednesday.

Witnesses told The Zimbabwe Times that Mliswa openly told ZANU PF supporters who were still holding on to offer letters that they risked not owning any farms in their lives if they did not forcibly take ownership of land before February 11."

This is an indication to us of the intentions of Mugabe's party. Nothing much is going to change in a power-sharing administration.

The only way that Zimbabwe will ever be a democracy again, is with the absence of Mugabe and ZANU PF.

"Mliswa, a staunch supporter of President Robert Mugabe, told the farmers that it would be difficult to occupy their land when MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has been sworn in as Prime Minister.

A recent SADC Extra Ordinary Summit resolved that Tsvangirai shall take oath of office on February 11.

"On Thursday there was a ZANU PF meeting for A2 farmers in Chegutu,” said Collin Cloete, a commercial farmer in Chegutu.

"The A2 farmers were complaining that they could not obtain inputs from government but the agenda immediately switched from that of trying to obtain inputs to that of fresh farm invasions.

"Mliswa said if anyone had offer letters for any of the farms in the province, they should hurry up and grab the farms before February 11 because it would be difficult to do so when Tsvangirai takes up office.

"They were told to harass the farmers until they left.

"Also present at the meeting was the Chegutu District Administrator, one Mariga and the Lands Committee, Clever Kunonga."

Are we really meant to believe that power-sharing - if, indeed, Mugabe is ready to share power - will heal Zimbabwe?

"Witnesses say Mliswa openly threatened with dismissal any police officer who dared stop the ZANU PF supporters from invading white owned farms.

There were some police officers who attended the meeting who did not mumble any word of dissent."

-o00o-

I am not going to bore you with the budget, but can offer you this link to read up on what Chinamasa had to say...

-o00o-

There can be no doubt that the MDC is risking it all in entering into a power-share with Mugabe. And many people may believe that this is more than just risky.

But consider this: what is the alternative?

"Zimbabwe’s Opposition took the momentous but hugely risky decision yesterday to enter a unity government with President Mugabe’s ZANU PF party, whose brutal and misguided policies have brought the country to the brink of ruin.

Under pressure from South Africa - but to the consternation of some Western governments - Morgan Tsvangirai won the approval of his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to take a step that could conceivably mark the beginning of the end of Mr Mugabe’s 28-year-rule but could equally well hand him a much needed lifeline.

"I’m doing what’s best for the people of Zimbabwe," Mr Tsvangirai told hundreds of jubilant supporters who had gathered outside the MDC headquarters in central Harare.

"He has walked into a trap," a Western official countered. "Mugabe is not serious about this... He will honour as little as he can."

The truth of the matter is that Mugabe is DEADLY serious in this. And if it all falls to pieces, SADC will wring their hands and mumble things like: "We tried."

Tsvangirai has made a bold decision, but it must be emphasised that he is not doing this alone. He has the backing of his party and supporters - which, I belive, is a little more than Mugabe has...

Sadly, Mugabe holds all the cards.

"Mr Tsvangirai said that he wanted the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the regional body which first brokered the power-sharing agreement last September, to address outstanding issues before February 11. These include the release of all political abductees and the appointments of the AttorneyGeneral, Reserve Bank Governor and provincial governors. He did not say what he would do if SADC failed to resolve those disputes and insisted: "We are unequivocal. We will go into this Government."

The release of political abductees? That will not happen.

Mugabe is a wily old fox and he knows what is needed to bring any power-sharing government to its kness.

How sad that an entire country is to suffer because of the ego of one man.

-o00o-

Take care.

'debvhu

Friday, 30th January 2009

Howzit

Foreign currency mid-rates updated.

-o00o-

This posting is VERY late because I had to go to the GP for a dressing change - B can do it hereafter - the blood clinic and the pharmacy... Sorry 'bout that!

-o00o-

Many people probably know this, but for those who don't... if you are ever frogmarched by robbers to the ATM to withdraw money against your will, apparently if you punch in you PIN in the reverse, the money is shown, but not released and the cops will be all over the scene like a bad suit.

The only query I have is what of those people whose PIN is the same in reverse as it is normally?

-o00o-

I received an email that includes this page (and another of my pages, "Mandebvhu Talks Zimbabwe"...) in a listing of "100 Best Blogs for Learning About Africa" - worth having a look at...

-o00o-

I haven't mentioned it for a while - mainly because I was lying in a hospital bed away from a computer - but, at risk of preaching to the converted, three years ago I wrote a book on my experiences in the Zimbabwe Republic Police in the early 1980's - that is to say, in the first few years of Mugabe's reign.

I was stationed within Matabeleland South and sadly spent much time cleaning up after Mugabe's Fifth Brigade who went on to slaughter between 20 and 30 thousand people for no other reason than they were Ndebele, this dark period in Zimbabwe's history being known as the Gukurahundi...

My book is no classic work of literature, but it does tell the story as openly and honestly as my mind can remember.

"Without Honour" is available from Lulu and CreateSpace.

I am currently penning my second book and hope to have it available soon.

Thank you...

-o00o-

Finally, Mugabe's people have admitted that the Zimbabwean currency is useless and the Acting Finance Minister, Patrick Chinamasa, has opened the flood gates to allow people within the country to deal in foreign currency - mainly because it is impossible to deal in local currency which loses about 50% of it's value every day...

"Zimbabweans will be allowed to conduct business in other currencies, alongside the Zimbabwe dollar, in an effort to stem the country's runaway inflation.

The announcement was made by acting Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa.

BBC southern Africa correspondent Peter Biles says the Zimbabwean dollar has become a laughing stock. A Z$100 trillion note was recently introduced.

Until now only licensed businesses could accept foreign currencies, although it was common practice.

The country is also facing a deepening humanitarian crisis as well."

It is typical of the Mugabe regime to have one of his lieutenants make the announcements. Mugabe has not got the guts to break the news himself, knowing full well that the announcement is as good as admitting defeat...

"Mr Chinamasa made the announcement as he delivered the annual budget to parliament.

"In line with the prevailing practices by the general public, [the] government is therefore allowing the use of multiple foreign currencies for business transactions alongside the Zimbabwean dollar," he said.

The country is in the grip of world-record hyperinflation which has left the Zimbabwean dollar virtually worthless - 231,000,000% in July 2008, the most recent figure released.

Teachers, doctors and civil servants have gone on strike complaining that their salaries - which equal trillions of Zimbabwean dollars - are not even enough to catch the bus to work each day."

Obviously, with the new government and the budget coming at virtually the same time, Mugabe has got no option. But this budget can be a window into the true nature of the Zimbabwean crisis...

"A 40-year-old Zimbabwean primary school teacher from the capital Harare, told the BBC news website earlier this week it cost nearly US$2 a day to travel to work, but inflation had reduced the average teacher's wage to the equivalent of US$1 a month."

Chinmasa seemed quite chipper with the announcement - perhaps because he knows his tenure in the Finance Ministry is not for much longer?

"In the hyper-inflationary environment characterising the economy, our people are now using multiple currencies alongside the Zimbabwean dollar. These include the [South African] rand, US dollar, Botswana pula, euro and British pound among others."

-o00o-

Yesterday there was a little confusion as to whether the MDC, as a party, would back their leader in unity government.

Happily, the party has chosen to give Morgan Tsvangirai their full and complete support.

"The opposition has accepted the idea of a government of national unity in Zimbabwe together with the regime of President Robert Mugabe, said sources in the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The party's leaders earlier had a meeting on the hypothesis.

"We have decided to adhere to the agreement because we have been given concessions by SADC,'' explained the sources, referring to the Community for the Development of Southern Africa, the most important regional organisation which has mediated between the parties. ''We have been guaranteed that our concerns would be taken into consideration, and we have noticed that some are already being resolved. This is the best way for us and the country."

We, as observers can only hope that this is a positive step - albeit one into the unknown.

-o00o-

Before you read this, let's remember that about a month ago Mugabe told the world that cholera in Zimbabwe had 'gone'. The following day his office tried to explain away his claim as him being 'sarcastic'.

How anyone can be sarcastic about a disease that is spreading even as you read and has already killed in excess of three thousand people...

"The United Nations World Health Organization announced Wednesday that the numbers of Zimbabweans who have died from Cholera passed 3000 people. This number includes over 1000 who have died within the past fifteen days. This epidemic is the worst outbreak of the illness that the world has seen in fourteen years.

Since August, 2008, a total of 3028 people have died from the disease, with another estimated 57,702 citizens affected by symptoms. According to aid workers, these latest numbers reflect the outbreaks move from urban to rural parts of the country.

Cholera is an intestinal, water-borne bacterial disease. It thrives in contaminated water, which has been prevalent in Zimbabwe due to "erratic" water supplies, massive shortages of purification chemicals and devices, broken water and sewer pipes and piled up, uncollected garbage. The waste-disposal system has also collapsed, providing heaps of garbage at the sides of streets that children have been seen playing in and around."

Another record for Zimbabwe - and they are not all any claims to fame.

"Unfortunately, the epidemic is only likely to get worse, according to Zimbabwean Health Minister David Parirenyatwa, because January and February are the peak months for Zimbabwe's rainy season. More standing water provides more fertile grounds for the bacteria.

The cholera crisis has become a "stark illustration" of Zimbabwe's political and economic strife, which shows little signs of going away."

The sentence which says it all, is the last...

"Zimbabwe has moved from a crisis to a disaster to passive genocide."

-o00o-

Again, I must apologise for the extreme lateness of this posting.

Take care.

'debvhu

Thursday, 29th January 2009

Howzit

There is some confusion over just what was accepted by the MDC in South Africa, but one thing is clear - an MDC/ZANU PF government is now on the cards.

My confusion is as to which ministries are run by which party. Without a definitive share out, we will find ourselves watching further 'negotiations' and further delays to democracy.

An example is the budget - due to be presented by former Justice Minister and now acting Finance Minister, Patrick Chinamasa. Was the finance ministry not intended to be run by the MDC? Did we not have ZANU PF saying that the MDC did not have the experience to run the ministry?

I despair. ZANU PF cannot cede authority to the MDC - and then hang on to the ministry. Does this mean that the MDC has to live with the ZANU PF budget?

Have we actually got a definitive ministry split list?

-o00o-

"Zimbabwe will present its annual budget this week, which analysts expect to contain desperate measures in the wake of economic collapse amid political crisis.

President Robert Mugabe's acting Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa will unveil the 2009 budget in parliament Thursday most likely in US dollars because soaring hyper-inflation has left the Zimbabwean dollar virtually worthless. Analysts say the budget - coming two months later than usual - would be both a number-crunching exercise and a confirmation that Zimbabwe has been forced to use foreign currencies after the spectacular collapse of its own currency. The Zimbabwean dollar currently trades at anything up to 40 trillion to the US dollar, despite being re-denominated through the removal of 10 zeroes in August. An average worker earns trillions, but struggles to buy a loaf of bread in the few shops that still accept the local unit."

Bearing in mind my concerns that the budget is not the responsibility of ZANU PF, the budget will obviously be an exercise in shoring up what few strengths Mugabe's party has left, the budget will not do anything for the people of Zimbabwe and will do even less for the country's economy.

"The simple change of currency is not going to save the economy, but may actually create more problems by getting the whole country, workers across the board, to believe they can get foreign currency without production," Robertson said. "What is going to save the economy is an acceptance that we are in this mess because of bad policies and bad politics and that we have to change those to have a foundation for recovery."

-o00o-

We are in danger of losing count of just how many zeroes have been dropped from the useless Zimbabwean currency. I think - and I stand to be corrected - that this would take the total to 25...

"The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries has urged the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to knock off 12 zeros from the Zimbabwean dollar while freezing the monetary base (money printing) at current levels as a strategy to stabilise the local unit.

The industrial representative body proposed that authorities allow multiple currencies to be used, stressing the local unit should remain a legal and not compulsory tender. "Freezing the local currency monetary base will quickly stabilise the local currency. After a period of free trade and subsequent stabilisation, a fixed rate can be declared," read a document on its recommendations to the Government. CZI said the removal of zeros was vital for processing transactions."

I also read on the internet this morning how the State communications provider, NetOne, is being sued because it refuses to be paid in local currency...

I am very confused when it comes to the financial health of the nation. We have ZANU PF about to release the budget, reportedly in foreign currency, the banks running out of money, the RBZ printing mountains of local currency and the whole time the country is being held to ransom by an economy which ZANU PF has destroyed.

Where do you start? What do you do?

"Presently, figures running to quintillions (18 zeros) are being transacted. The removal of 12 zeros would see a return to millions becoming the highest range of figures once again. Some analysts, however, were of the opinion that slashing zeros would have to be part of a more holistic package to salvage the local unit, hence the economy. CZI said it was important that currencies such as the United States dollar and the South African rand continued to be regarded as tender although it proposed that the US dollar be made the primary unit of account for all transactions in the economy."

-o00o-

-o00o-

I am, at present, reading Cathy Buckle's "African Tears", and I can draw a parallel between events in 2000 with this event. Police chucked invading war veterans off farms, and then got labelled as 'MDC supporters' and there were calls for the policemen concerned to be removed from the force.

What's the bet that something similar happens here?

"Military police had to be summoned on Tuesday to evict scores of soldiers and war veterans from Harare municipality-owned residential flats they had invaded.

The soldiers and former combatants of Zimbabwe’s 1970s war of independence moved into the flats that are still under construction claiming they had nowhere else to stay because they could not afford the foreign currency that most landlords were demanding.

Sources in the City of Harare said city fathers spent the whole of Tuesday trying to persuade the group of about 40 war veterans and soldiers to move out of the three blocks of flats so that construction work could continue.

But the invaders insisted they would move out only if Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono gave them hard cash to pay for accommodation elsewhere.

“They told us they had fought much bigger wars and would not be intimidated... They said we should tell Gono to give them foreign currency or they would not move,” said a municipality official, who did not want to be named because he did not have permission from his superiors to speak to the media."

This is the Zimbabwe that Mugabe is going to leave as his legacy. An impoverished population with a number of people who believe that their tenure anywhere in the country is guaranteed by ZANU PF.

They have the ability to operate outside the law - without fear of punishment or prosecution.

"Most landlords in Zimbabwe’s cities and towns now demand rentals in hard currency after Gono last year authorised selected shops to sell basic commodities in foreign currency.

However, every shop, business and service provider is now charging in hard cash, a major setback for the majority of citizens who do not have access to foreign currency.

Unable to move the invaders, officials at the Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ) that is jointly funding construction of the flats with the Harare city council sought help from acting Minister of Finance Patrick Chinamasa and Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Constantine Chiwenga who sent military police to evict the mob."

In typical ZANU PF style, their solution has little to offer the people, even less to offer the people directly effected and has an air of threat about it.

"Police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena confirmed the incident but sought to downplay the matter saying: "It was not an occupation as such, it was just a group of people who had camped there but they have been dispersed."

-o00o-

As I have indicated earlier in this posting, my biggest concern is that any unity government will be delayed by this incessant need to 'negotiate'. Surely the need right now, is to sort out the country?

"It’s been widely reported that Morgan Tsvangirai is likely to agree to the unity deal, as presented by SADC after their summit. But Zimbabweans still wait a final decision as the MDC maintains it is awaiting a mandate from its National Council which meets on Friday.

After a day of confusion and conflicting statements the MDC President was quoted on Wednesday saying he had agreed in principle, and was optimistic that his party would agree to join.

Southern African leaders issued a communiqué on Tuesday stating a unity government will be formed next month, and even the MDC’s closest ally in the region, Botswana, welcomed the outcome of the SADC Summit.

Despite being the Mugabe regime’s harshest critic in the region, Botswana issued a statement on Wednesday saying it hoped the developments would "move forward the process of resolving the crisis of legitimacy in Zimbabwe and put an end to the suffering and difficult challenges facing people of that country."

The time for negotiations first has passed. The country is in need of a government and is in need of rebuilding.

Why can't they just get on and do it?

"Despite the fact that the MDC is only going to decide on joining a unity government on Friday, the SADC communiqué said the implementation of the agreement is starting this week on Friday with the establishment of a Joint Monitoring Implementation Committee (JOMIC). This will be followed by other processes to lead to the formation of a government by mid February.

Furthermore the negotiators from all three main political parties are expected to meet on Thursday to discuss the remaining differences. These include consideration of the National Security Bill and a formula for the distribution of provincial governors."

Mid February is still two weeks away, and with Mugabe in the pound seats, much can happen - and invariable does...

-o00o-

Take care.

'debvhu

Wednesday, 28th January 2009

Howzit

Foreign currency mid-rates updated...

-o00o-

Last evening, I was able to send out the following email:

"It is almost 6 in the evening and B and I have just returned from yet another visit to the hand unit.

First of all, we saw the surgeon, who's eyes opened wide with delight when he saw the wound.

Quickly, I was shuffled off to another area in the clinic where a nurse set about removing the big heavy PoP cast - I hated that cast! - and then, bless her, she removed the stitches AND washed my arm in a luvverly warm soap solution!

B, in the meantime, had taken off for the pharmacy as the surgeon changed one of my antibiotics as I had returned a high "alkaline phosphatase" - from Wikipedia: "Alkaline phosphatase: An enzyme made in the liver, bone, and the placenta and normally present in high concentrations in growing bone and in bile. Alkaline phosphatase is released into the blood during injury and during such normal activities as bone growth and pregnancy. It is measured in a routine blood test.

Abnormally high blood levels of alkaline phosphatase may indicate disease in bone or liver, bile duct obstruction, or certain malignancies. The enzyme is often elevated in the leukemic cells in chronic myelogenous leukemia."

Given that I am NOT pregnant...

Anyway, once the wretched cast had been removed, and the arm washed, I took a couple more pictures.

I am sure that you will all agree that even to the untrained eye - and my eye is NOT trained - that the improvement and recovery is quite stunning.

Sadly, the pins are not in place and that will be done at a later stage - hopefully by keyhole surgery, but I doubt that.

Finally, the therapy girls built a lightweight thermoplastic brace to replace the cast. This is removable for cleaning purposes, but it does not get removed when I shower - the arm will remain in a bag - cleaning will be done by sponge by my long suffering wife and best friend, B, on a daily basis.

As I sit here in front of my PC typing this, I finally have an overall concept of what I have been through, and how much support I have had from my wife, my family and my friends all over the world - and I am humbled. Thank you all so very much.

I don't need to go back to the clinic until 24/2 so you will be spared further photographs for a while.

I am so grateful to you all for the phone calls and emails. A true inspiration. Thank you one and all.

And what a wonderful birthday present for B (28th) - although I have organised some other pressies for her... lol...

Y'all take special care."

-o00o-

You will no doubt recall that I had a commenter rip into my writings earlier this week. Well, yesterday I discovered that I had been quoted by The Guardian newspaper here in the UK - and not everyone disagreed with my opinions:

"What has Zimbabwe agreed Zimbabwe should do?" a confused Amanda Atwood, from Zimbabwean human rights campaign Kubatana, asks on the organisation's blog.

The radio says there has been a deal at the summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and that the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, is to be sworn in as prime minister, she says. But Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change remains disappointed and had not agreed to the deal as it falls well short of its expectations.

Robb Ellis, a former Zimbabwean policeman, reckons President Robert Mugabe has never been interested in sharing power. "Mugabe is driven by a need to remain in control," he writes on his blog. "It goes against the basics that power be shared, and for that reason alone, the summit will result in another absolute waste of time."

Ray Hartley, the editor of South Africa's Times newspaper, agrees. "The whole talks thing has become a regional farce, with heads of state paraded about in increasingly ludicrous garlands of dead flowers as the talks charade drags on. The fact is that there is no political will from Mugabe and only the most flaccid interest from Tsvangirai in making this power-sharing arrangement work."

Atwood claims the confusion about the outcome of the talks stems from the opposition ambivalent position. "Does Operation Flip Flop continue?" she asks. "Will the MDC continue to waffle its way through these negotiations – when the very notion of negotiating with an entrenched and recalcitrant dictator is absurd?"

She also highlight Tsvangirai's weak bargaining position. "Tsvangirai is more desperate than Mugabe – desperate enough that he's willing to negotiate in the first place," she says.

How can Mugabe be genuinely interested in sharing power with Tsvangirai, when the president's mouthpiece, the Herald newspaper, continues to portray his rival as untrustworthy stooge of the west?

Today it said: "Tsvangirai and his handlers have never made it a secret that they want the inter-party process taken out of SADC's hands, to the AU [African Union], en route to the United Nations.

"There they hope their handlers can find cause to have Zimbabwe on the agenda of the security council as a prelude to invasion.

"Continued indulgence and dalliance with Tsvangirai only serves to perpetuate endless talks about talks, at a time when Zimbabwe is in serious need of executive guidance."

Meanwhile, Sokwanele, the blog of the Zimbabwe Civic Action Support Group, urges SADC to take action against Mugabe's regime rather than negotiate with it. It says: "State institutions and their agents have become the biggest danger to the Zimbabwean people, together with the failure of SADC leaders to recognise the deterioration of the situation and take firm action against the offenders, who continue to violate SADC principles and the GPA [global political agreement] with impunity. You have one final chance to do the right thing."

Can't be all bad...

-o00o-

Reports today would indicate that the MDC leader. Morgan Tsvangirai, has agreed to form government with Mugabe. The question must be asked: was he railroaded into agreeing, finally giving in because he saw the suffering that would be visited upon the Zimbabwean people if Mugabe is allowed to establish a unilateral government - or is this a positive move, thought out to the nth degree, considering the current situation in the country?

"Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has decided to enter a unity government with President Robert Mugabe, a senior advisor to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader said on Tuesday night, after months of deadlock over the country's power-sharing deal.

The move comes despite fears that Mr Mugabe will use the arrangement to draw in and marginalise the MDC, as he has done to other opposition groups in the past.

Mr Tsvangirai has consistently refused to join a coalition with Mr Mugabe, who retains strong powers as president under the power-sharing agreement, unless MDC figures are given key cabinet posts, especially the home affairs ministry, which brings control over the police.

But Mr Tsvangirai is under immense pressure from regional leaders to join the government after almost 3,000 Zimbabweans have died of cholera, millions need food aid, and the economy is in a spiral of collapse. Earlier this week a regional summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Pretoria said that he should be sworn in as prime minister within a fortnight."

A very difficult situation to say the least.

If Tsvangirai does join with Mugabe in government, will Mugabe use his own position and influence in cabinet to hold Tsvangirai's powers at bay, or will he actually allow the MDC leader to perform his function on government?

I think that the question answers itself...

"The MDC issued a statement yesterday saying the summit's conclusions "fall far short of our expectations", but a source close to the negotiations said Mr Tsvangirai believed he had no alternative but to "give it a try".

He would return to Harare on Wednesday, the source said, ready to be sworn in as prime minister, subject to the MDC's national council endorsing the decision on Friday. Sources in the Zimbabwean capital said he would have majority support at the meeting.

But some of Mr Tsvangirai's closest lieutenants fear that the power-sharing deal has echoes of the Unity Accord of 1987, when ZANU PF merged with Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU organisation and effectively swallowed it whole."

Unfortunately for us interested people around the world, the only way we are going to get the answer to that question, is to wait and see - and by then it would be too late..

And if Mugabe is intent on gobbling up the MDC, by the time we know it, it will be too late...

"Despite Mr Tsvangirai coming first in the first round of presidential polls in March and MDC depriving ZANU PF of a parliamentary majority for the first time since 1980, some observers believe that Mr Mugabe and ZANU PF's determination to retain their grip on the levers of power leaves the MDC with no choice but to implement the power-sharing agreement.

Until now, the opposition has been demanding that its concerns be resolved before it would share in the responsibility for running the country. Only two weeks ago Mr Tsvangirai, who has a history of U-turns, was insisting that outstanding issues had to be concluded before the government was formed, so that it could be effective as well as inclusive.

"We will only be in a government which has the potential to be functional," he said then."

The really sad part about all of this is that Tsvangirai was effectively painted into a corner, his options severely limited.

-o00o-

I am struggling a little this morning, probably due to the fact that my arm got a full work over yesterday afternoon. So I am actually going to pack this posting up for the day. Add the fact that today is my wife's birthday...

I saw this on the internet, and thought that it epitomised the true character of one Robert Gabriel Mugabe...

"Robert Mugabe returned today from five years in exile and told a tumultuous rally of his supporters that there would be no more injustice based on race and colour. He emphasised that there would still be a place for private farmers and that only underutilised and abandoned land or land owned by absentee landlords would be used to resettle peasants.”

The Times, January 28, 1980

-o00o-

Take care.

'debvhu

Tuesday, 27th January 2009

Howzit

I am back at the hand unit this afternoon. I assume that the stitches will be removed today - and I am hoping that to do this they will put on an entirely new cast, only because the one I have right now is major uncomfortable and difficult to get along with.

I am hoping that I will be able to take a new photograph of the wound and how it is progressing.

But that is this afternoon.

-o00o-

There are reports that the talks in South Africa on Zimbabwe have resulted in an agreement. But as you will read, the MDC don't see it like that.

"Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change, agreed to form a power-sharing government with President Robert Mugabe, ending a political impasse that has lasted for almost a year.

The prime minister and deputy prime minister will be sworn in on Feb. 11, South African President Kgalema Motlanthe told reporters early today after an emergency summit of the 15-nation Southern African Development Community in Pretoria.

The breakthrough came almost a year after Tsvangirai won the most votes in a presidential election in March. He pulled out of a June runoff vote because of violence against his supporters, enabling Mugabe to extend his 28-year rule.

Zimbabwe has been in political limbo since a Sept. 15 accord signed by the two men and Arthur Mutambara, leader of an MDC faction, amid disagreements over who will control portfolios such as the Home Affairs Ministry, which is in charge of the police. The MDC and Mugabe’s ruling Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front will share control of the Home Affairs Ministry for at least six months, Motlanthe said."

I do wonder whether these politicians attended the same summit as the MDC says: "Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) on Tuesday blasted as 'malicious' assurances given by southern African leaders at the end of a 12-hour summit that the party had agreed to join President Robert Mugabe in a power-sharing government.

"It's completely malicious," a spokesman for MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa after South African President Kgalema Motlanthe told reporters that Zimbabwe's four-month-long political impasse had been resolved.

"There was no agreement. We will only form a government subject to the resolution of all of our demands," Joseph Mungwari said."

I am of the opinion that these claims are an attempt to force Tsvangirai's hand - remember that Mugabe has already threatened to proceed to a unilateral government on his own if Tsvangirai does not agree with him.

A further report says: "A summit on Zimbabwe's power-sharing deal decided on Tuesday that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai should be sworn in as prime minister by February 11 but his party said it was not satisfied with the meeting's results.

The summit also agreed that control of the hotly disputed Home Affairs Ministry, which has been a major obstacle to a final agreement, should be divided between President Robert Mugabe's ZANU PF party and the opposition for six months."

I really don't know which story to believe - but if I really had to, I would be inclined towards the MDC line. The other story is too much in line with what Mugabe wants, and care must be taken that the political future of Zimbabwe is not based on the personal wants and needs of one man.

There are an estimated thirteen million Zimbabweans worldwide, and I see no reason why these people should be held to ransom be a failed politician like Mugabe.

-o00o-

And this, I believe, is the real reason behind the release of a statement saying that an agreement has been reached. SADC have had enough of the Zimbabwean crisis, and they are not sure how to deal with it. So by saying that there is an agreement, they can class the problem as sorted!

"Southern African leaders on Tuesday gave President Robert Mugabe and rival Morgan Tsvangirai until mid-February to form a unity government after marathon talks to break Zimbabwe's political deadlock.

The emergency summit decided that Tsvangirai should be sworn in by February 11 to rule Zimbabwe alongside Mugabe, said Southern African Development Community (SADC) executive secretary Tomaz Salomao.

The swearing in of cabinet ministers two days later would "conclude the process of the formation of the inclusive government", Salomao added, reading a statement of resolutions after 14 hours of talks."

Putting deadlines in front of Mugabe has historically never worked - and he will do everything he can to avoid that deadline. Mugabe does not march to someone else's beat...

And mid-February is only just under three weeks away.

"But South African President Kgalema Motlanthe, who chairs the SADC bloc, was confident of breakthrough in the four month stand-off after the summit delegates set the deadline.

"Yes, of course," he told reporters Tuesday morning when asked if the Zimbabwe parties had agreed to join the unity government.

"They will present themselves on the set date for the swearing in and then proceed to form the government," he said.

The unresolved power-sharing issues sank talks in Harare last week, with Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF on Monday threatening to go ahead with a new government if the fresh efforts failed to end the dispute."

-o00o-

Meanwhile, while SADC attempt to wave a magic wand over the power-sharing government, life in Zimbabwe carries on.

One aspect of life in Zimbabwe that is radically biased towards Mugabe's ZANU PF party, is the judiciary. Mugabe's lapdog, and someone who looks to be gearing himself up to entering the political field, is the Reserve Bank Governor, and his answer to the economic problem is to paper pver the cracks - with the useless Zimbabwean currency - who believes that by showering the members of the judiciary with luxury motor vehicles and satellite television kits.

(You may recall that ZANU PF declared satellite systems illegal in the run up to the election, and ordered that the dishes be taken down... whilst at the same time the judiciary were being given exactly what had been declared illegal...)

"A Zimbabwean magistrate rejected attempts by the government to block an investigation into allegations that state agents tortured a journalist and six opposition activists, ordering police to submit a report on the probe next month.

Magistrate Gloria Takundwa dismissed an affidavit filed by State Security Minister Didymus Mutasa seeking to block the torture investigation as misplaced and said the police should continue with the investigation and report to court on February 9.

"I find the minister’s affidavit misplaced. He was supposed to wait for an investigation into the allegations before filing this affidavit," said Takundwa."

At which time the probe will be blocked and THEN the miscarriage of justice can continue.

It is amazing how much 'justice' a satellite system and a luxury motor vehicle can buy

-o00o-

Take care.

'debvhu